Advanced model-based risk reasoning on automatic railway level crossings

Safety is a core issue in the railway operation. In particular, as witnessed by accident/incident statistics, railway level crossing (LX) safety is one of the most critical points in railways. In the present paper, a Bayesian network (BN) based framework for causal reasoning related to risk analysis is proposed. It consists of a set of integrated stages, namely risk scenario definition, real field data collection and processing, BN model establishment and model performance validation. In particular, causal structural constraints are introduced to the framework forthe purpose of combining empirical knowledge with automatic learning approaches, thus to identify effective causalities and avoid inappropriate structural connections. Then, the proposed framework is applied to risk analysis of LX accidents in France. In details, the BN risk model is established on the basis of real field data and the model performance is validated. Moreover, forward and reverse inferences based on the BN risk model are performed to predict LX accident occurrence and quantify the contribution degree of various impacting factors respectively, so as to identify the riskiest factors. Besides, influence strength and sensitivity analyses are further carried out to scrutinize the influence strength of various causal factors on the LX accident occurrence likelihood and determine which factors the LX accident occurrence is most sensitive to. The main outputs of our study attest that the proposed framework is sound and effective in terms of risk reasoning analysis and offers significant insights on exploring practical recommendations to prevent LX accidents

Synopsis of the pelidnotine scarabs (Coleoptera, Scarabaeidae, Rutelinae, Rutelini) and annotated catalog of the species and subspecies

The pelidnotine scarabs (Scarabaeidae: Rutelinae: Rutelini) are a speciose, paraphyletic assemblage of beetles that includes spectacular metallic species (“jewel scarabs”) as well as species that are ecologically important as herbivores, pollinators, and bioindicators. These beetles suffer from a complicated nomenclatural history, due primarily to 20th century taxonomic and nomenclatural errors. We review the taxonomic history of the pelidnotine scarabs, present a provisional key to genera with overviews of all genera, and synthesize a catalog of all taxa with synonyms, distributional data, type specimen information, and 107 images of exemplar species. As a result of our research, the pelidnotine leaf chafers (a paraphyletic group) include 27 (26 extant and 1 extinct) genera and 420 valid species and subspecies (419 extant and 1 extinct). Our research makes biodiversity research on this group tractable and accessible, thus setting the stage for future studies that address evolutionary and ecological trends. Based on our research, 1 new species is described, 1 new generic synonym and 12 new species synonyms are proposed, 11 new lectotypes and 1 new neotype are designated, many new or revised nomenclatural combinations, and many unavailable names are presented. The following taxonomic changes are made: New generic synonym: The genus Heteropelidnota Ohaus, 1912 is a new junior synonym of Pelidnota MacLeay, 1819. New species synonyms: Plusiotis adelaida pavonacea Casey, 1915 is a syn. n. of Chrysina adelaida (Hope, 1841); Odontognathus gounellei Ohaus, 1908 is a revised synonym of Pelidnota ebenina (Blanchard, 1842); Pelidnota francoisgenieri Moore & Jameson, 2013 is a syn. n. of Pelidnota punctata (Linnaeus, 1758); Pelidnota genieri Soula, 2009 is a syn. n. of Pelidnota punctata (Linnaeus, 1758); Pelidnota lutea (Olivier, 1758) is a revised synonym of Pelidnota punctata (Linnaeus, 1758); Pelidnota (Pelidnota) texensis Casey, 1915 is a revised synonym of Pelidnota punctata (Linnaeus, 1758); Pelidnota (Strigidia) zikani (Ohaus, 1922) is a revised synonym of Pelidnota tibialis tibialis Burmeister, 1844; Pelidnota ludovici Ohaus, 1905 is a syn. n. of Pelidnota burmeisteri tricolor Nonfried, 1894; Rutela fulvipennis Germar, 1824 is syn. n. of Pelidnota cuprea (Germar, 1824); Pelidnota pulchella blanda Burmeister, 1844 is a syn. n. of Pelidnota pulchella pulchella (Kirby, 1819); Pelidnota pulchella scapularis Burmeister, 1844 is a syn. n. of Pelidnota pulchella pulchella (Kirby, 1819); Pelidnota xanthogramma Perty, 1830 is a syn. n. of Pelidnota pulchella pulchella (Kirby, 1819). New or revised statuses: Pelidnota fabricelavalettei Soula, 2009, revised status, is considered a species; Pelidnota rioensis Soula, 2009, stat. n., is considered a species; Pelidnota semiaurata semiaurata Burmeister, 1844, stat. rev., is considered a subspecies. New or comb. rev. and revised status: Plusiotis guaymi Curoe, 2001 is formally transferred to the genus Chrysina (C. guaymi (Curoe, 2001), comb. n.); Plusiotis transvolcanica Morón & Nogueira, 2016 is transferred to the genus Chrysina (C. transvolcanica (Morón & Nogueira, 2016), comb. n.). Heteropelidnota kuhnti Ohaus, 1912 is transferred to the genus Pelidnota (P. kuhnti (Ohaus, 1912), comb. n.); Odontognathus riedeli Ohaus, 1905 is considered a subspecies of Pelidnota rubripennis Burmeister, 1844 (Pelidnota rubripennis riedeli (Ohaus, 1905), revised status and comb. rev.); Pelidnota (Strigidia) acutipennis (F. Bates, 1904) is transferred to the genus Sorocha (Sorocha acutipennis (F. Bates, 1904), comb. rev.); Pelidnota (Odontognathus) nadiae Martínez, 1978 is transferred to the genus Sorocha (Sorocha nadiae (Martínez, 1978), comb. rev.); Pelidnota (Ganonota) plicipennis Ohaus, 1934 is transferred to the genus Sorocha (Sorocha plicipennis (Ohaus, 1934), comb. rev.); Pelidnota similis Ohaus, 1908 is transferred to the genus Sorocha (Sorocha similis (Ohaus, 1908), comb. rev.); Pelidnota (Ganonota) yungana Ohaus, 1934 is transferred to Sorocha (Sorocha yungana (Ohaus, 1934), comb. rev.); Pelidnota malyi Soula, 2010: 58, revised status; Xenopelidnota anomala porioni Chalumeau, 1985, revised subspecies status. To stabilize the classification of the group, a neotype is designated for the following species: Pelidnota thiliezi Soula, 2009. Lectotypes are designated for the following names (given in their original combinations): Pelidnota brevicollis Casey, 1915, Pelidnota brevis Casey, 1915, Pelidnota debiliceps Casey, 1915, Pelidnota hudsonica Casey, 1915, Pelidnota oblonga Casey, 1915, Pelidnota pallidipes Casey, 1915, Pelidnota ponderella Casey, 1915, Pelidnota strenua Casey, 1915, Pelidnota tarsalis Casey, 1915, Pelidnota texensis Casey, 1915, and Scarabaeus punctatus Linnaeus, 1758. The following published infrasubspecific names are unavailable per ICZN Article 45.6.1: Pelidnota (Odontognathus) cuprea var. coerulea Ohaus, 1913; Pelidnota (Odontognathus) cuprea var. rufoviolacea Ohaus, 1913; Pelidnota (Odontognathus) cuprea var. nigrocoerulea Ohaus, 1913; Pelidnota pulchella var. fulvopunctata Ohaus, 1913; Pelidnota pulchella var. sellata Ohaus, 1913; Pelidnota pulchella var. reducta Ohaus, 1913; Pelidnota unicolor var. infuscata Ohaus, 1913. The following published species name is unavailable per ICZN Article 11.5: Neopatatra synonyma Moore & Jameson, 2013. The following published species name is unavailable per application of ICZN Article 16.1: Parhoplognathus rubripennis Soula, 2008. Synopsis of the pelidnotine scarabs (Coleoptera, Scarabaeidae, Rutelinae, Rutelini) 3 The following published species name is unavailable per application of ICZN Article 16.4.1: Strigidia testaceovirens argentinica Soula, 2006, Pelidnota (Strigidia) testaceovirens argentinica (Soula, 2006), and Pelidnota testaceovirens argentinica (Soula, 2006). The following published species names are unavailable per application of ICZN Article 16.4.2: Homonyx digennaroi Soula, 2010; Homonyx lecourti Soula, 2010; Homonyx mulliei Soula, 2010; Homonyx simoensi Soula, 2010; Homonyx wagneri Soula, 2010; Homonyx zovii Demez & Soula, 2011; Pelidnota arnaudi Soula, 2009; Pelidnota brusteli Soula, 2010; Pelidnota chalcothorax septentrionalis Soula, 2009; Pelidnota degallieri Soula, 2010; Pelidnota lavalettei Soula, 2008; Pelidnota lavalettei Soula, 2009; Pelidnota dieteri Soula, 2011; Strigidia gracilis decaensi Soula, 2008, Pelidnota (Strigidia) gracilis decaensi (Soula, 2008), and Pelidnota gracilis decaensi (Soula, 2008); Pelidnota halleri Demez & Soula, 2011; Pelidnota injantepalominoi Demez & Soula, 2011; Pelidnota kucerai Soula, 2009; Pelidnota malyi Soula, 2010: 36-37; Pelidnota mezai Soula, 2009; Pelidnota polita darienensis Soula, 2009; Pelidnota polita orozcoi Soula, 2009; Pelidnota polita pittieri Soula, 2009; Pelidnota punctulata decolombia Soula, 2009; Pelidnota punctulata venezolana Soula, 2009; Pelidnota raingeardi Soula, 2009; Pelidnota schneideri Soula, 2010; Pelidnota simoensi Soula, 2009; Pelidnota unicolor subandina Soula, 2009; Sorocha carloti Demez & Soula, 2011; Sorocha castroi Soula, 2008; Sorocha fravali Soula, 2011; Sorocha jeanmaurettei Demez & Soula, 2011; Sorocha yelamosi Soula, 2011; Xenopelidnota bolivari Soula, 2009; Xenopelidnota pittieri pittieri Soula, 2009. Due to unavailability of the name Pseudogeniates cordobaensis Soula 2009, we describe the species as intentionally new (Pseudogeniates cordobaensis Moore, Jameson, Garner, Audibert, Smith, and Seidel, sp. n.)

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Mutations in the P53 pathway are a hallmark of human cancer. The identification of pathways upon which p53-deficient cells depend could reveal therapeutic targets that may spare normal cells with intact p53. In contrast to P53 point mutations in other cancer, complete loss of P53 is a frequent event in osteosarcoma (OS), the most common cancer of bone. The consequences of p53 loss for osteoblastic cells and OS development are poorly understood. Here we use murine OS models to demonstrate that elevated Pthlh (Pthrp), cAMP levels and signalling via CREB1 are characteristic of both p53-deficient osteoblasts and OS. Normal osteoblasts survive depletion of both PTHrP and CREB1. In contrast, p53-deficient osteoblasts and OS depend upon continuous activation of this pathway and undergo proliferation arrest and apoptosis in the absence of PTHrP or CREB1. Our results identify the PTHrP-cAMP-CREB1 axis as an attractive pathway for therapeutic inhibition in OS. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.13446.00

New genetic loci link adipose and insulin biology to body fat distribution.

Body fat distribution is a heritable trait and a well-established predictor of adverse metabolic outcomes, independent of overall adiposity. To increase our understanding of the genetic basis of body fat distribution and its molecular links to cardiometabolic traits, here we conduct genome-wide association meta-analyses of traits related to waist and hip circumferences in up to 224,459 individuals. We identify 49 loci (33 new) associated with waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index (BMI), and an additional 19 loci newly associated with related waist and hip circumference measures (P < 5 × 10(-8)). In total, 20 of the 49 waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI loci show significant sexual dimorphism, 19 of which display a stronger effect in women. The identified loci were enriched for genes expressed in adipose tissue and for putative regulatory elements in adipocytes. Pathway analyses implicated adipogenesis, angiogenesis, transcriptional regulation and insulin resistance as processes affecting fat distribution, providing insight into potential pathophysiological mechanisms

Instabilités dynamiques de systèmes frottants en présence de variabilités paramétriques - Application au phénomène de crissement

Lors de la conception d’un frein, le confort et le bien-être du consommateur font partie des critères principaux. En effet, les instabilités de crissement, qui engendrent une des pollutions acoustiques les plus importantes, représentent un challenge actuel pour la communauté scientifique et les industriels du domaine. Dans le cadre de cette thèse, nous nous sommes intéressés à la mise en évidence du caractère variable du crissement, observé pour deux systèmes de freinage d’un même véhicule, grâce à des plans d’expériences, expérimental et numérique. Pour être représentatif d’une famille de structures, il est désormais indéniable qu’il faille prendre en compte les variabilités observées sur de multiples paramètres liés au système étudié dès la phase de conception. L’enrichissement des simulations déterministes actuelles nécessite la mise en place d’outils non déterministes rapides et respectant le conservatisme des solutions étudiées. Pour ce faire, nous avons contribué au développement de méthodes numériques dédiées à la propagation des données floues dans le cas des graphes de coalescence, à la détermination des positions d’équilibre de corps en contact frottant à partir d’une méthode de régulation basée sur la logique floue. Cette solution permet d’appliquer une technique de projection pour réduire le coût numérique en utilisant des bases modales des composants réanalysées par un développement homotopique.During a brake design, consumer comfort and well-being are the main criteria. Indeed, squeal instabilities, that produce main acoustic pollution, represent a current challenge in the scientific community and for industrials. In this thesis, we interest first in the highlight of the variability of squeal, observed for two brake systems of a same vehicle, thanks to experimental and numerical designs of experiments. To be representative of a structure family, it is now undeniable that we must take into account variability observed in various parameters of the studied system, from the design phase. To enrich existing deterministic simulations, quick non deterministic tools must be established, respecting the studied solutions conservatism. For this, we have contributed to the development of numerical methods to propagate fuzzy data in the case of diagram of coalescence, to determine the equilibrium position of frictional contact bodies with a fuzzy logic controller. This solution allows to apply a projection technique for reducing the computational cost. The modal bases of components are reanalyzed by homotopy perturbation

Using Bayesian Networks for the Purpose of Risk Analysis at Railway Level Crossings

CTS 2018, 15th IFAC Symposium on Control in Transportation Systems, Savona, ITALIE, 06-/06/2018 - 08/06/2018According to accident/incident statistics, railway level crossing (LX) is one of the most critical points in railways form the safety point of view. In the present paper, causal reasoning analysis of LX accidents is carried out based on Bayesian networks (BNs). In particular, causal structural constraints are introduced to establish BN risk model for the purpose of combining empirical knowledge and statistical data, thus to identify effective causalities and avoid inappropriate structural connections. Moreover, forward and reverse inferences based on the BN risk model are performed to predict LX accident occurrence and quantify the contribution degree of various impacting factors respectively, so as to identify the riskiest factors. Besides, influence strength analysis is further carried out to scrutinize the influence strength of various causal factors on LX accident occurrence. The outcomes of the BN risk model offer significant insights on exploring practical improvement recommendations to improve LX safety

Instabilités dynamiques de systèmes frottants en présence de variabilités paramétriques - Application au phénomène de crissement

Lors de la conception d un frein, le confort et le bien-être du consommateur font partie des critères principaux. En effet, les instabilités de crissement, qui engendrent une des pollutions acoustiques les plus importantes, représentent un challenge actuel pour la communauté scientifique et les industriels du domaine. Dans le cadre de cette thèse, nous nous sommes intéressés à la mise en évidence du caractère variable du crissement, observé pour deux systèmes de freinage d un même véhicule, grâce à des plans d expériences, expérimental et numérique. Pour être représentatif d une famille de structures, il est désormais indéniable qu il faille prendre en compte les variabilités observées sur de multiples paramètres liés au système étudié dès la phase de conception. L enrichissement des simulations déterministes actuelles nécessite la mise en place d outils non déterministes rapides et respectant le conservatisme des solutions étudiées. Pour ce faire, nous avons contribué au développement de méthodes numériques dédiées à la propagation des données floues dans le cas des graphes de coalescence, à la détermination des positions d équilibre de corps en contact frottant à partir d une méthode de régulation basée sur la logique floue. Cette solution permet d appliquer une technique de projection pour réduire le coût numérique en utilisant des bases modales des composants réanalysées par un développement homotopique.During a brake design, consumer comfort and well-being are the main criteria. Indeed, squeal instabilities, that produce main acoustic pollution, represent a current challenge in the scientific community and for industrials. In this thesis, we interest first in the highlight of the variability of squeal, observed for two brake systems of a same vehicle, thanks to experimental and numerical designs of experiments. To be representative of a structure family, it is now undeniable that we must take into account variability observed in various parameters of the studied system, from the design phase. To enrich existing deterministic simulations, quick non deterministic tools must be established, respecting the studied solutions conservatism. For this, we have contributed to the development of numerical methods to propagate fuzzy data in the case of diagram of coalescence, to determine the equilibrium position of frictional contact bodies with a fuzzy logic controller. This solution allows to apply a projection technique for reducing the computational cost. The modal bases of components are reanalyzed by homotopy perturbation.VALENCIENNES-Bib. électronique (596069901) / SudocSudocFranceF

Statistical Analysis of Collisions at French Level Crossings

The Third International Conference on Railway Technology: Research, Development and Maintenance, Cagliari, ITALIE, 05-/04/2016 - 08/04/2016As demonstrated by accident and incident statistics, level crossing (LC) safety is one of the most critical issues that railway stakeholders need to deal with. About 1200 accidents occur on average every year at European LCs accounting for about one-third of the entire railway accidents, and result in more than 300 deaths per year in Europe. LC safety involves various aspects: technical elements, operational procedures, human factors and environmental considerations. On the other hand, the efficiency of several experiments adopted in recent years to improve LC safety (such as using obstacle detection at LCs, setting islets in front of LCs, etc.) is disputable due to the lack of thorough risk analysis establishing the potential relationship between impacting factors and the safety level. In this paper, we focus on risk analysis at automated LCs with two half barriers (SAL2), which are widely used in France. Various kinds of impacting factors: transport mode, geographical region and traffic moment are analysed by means of statistical techniques to establish their statistic models and distribution characteristics based on the accident data from SNCF, the French railway operator. Then, we assess the effect of various factors on the risk level qualitatively and quantitatively, in such a way as to open the way for setting efficient solutions and consequently, reaching the point of improving LC safety

A new insight on the risky behavior of motorists at railway level crossings: An observational field study

Accidents at railway level crossings (LXs) give rise to serious material and human damage. Particularly, collisions between trains and motorized vehicles are the most critical accidents occurring at LXs. It is worth noticing that violations committed by vehicle drivers are the primary cause of such accidents. The present study is a tentative to acquire a better understanding of risky behavior of vehicle drivers while crossing LXs during the closure cycle. Namely, risk analysis based on field measurement conducted at four automated LXs with two half barriers is performed. We focus on vehicle driver behavior during the LX closure cycle while distinguishing between different phases. In fact, the closure cycle is divided into three phases which are “Ph2 Red Flash and Siren”, “Ph3 Barriers Coming Down” and “Ph4 Barriers Down”; and vehicle driver behavior in each phase as time increases is scrutinized respectively. Particularly, zigzag scenarios are detected, using an original experimental setting that we have implemented, and analyzed in detail. The main findings based on the analysis demonstrate that the peak of violation rate in the morning is later than the actual rush hour in the morning; a distinct peak of the violation rate shows on Friday, while the violation rate on weekend is fairly low; the relative violation rate of vehicles with high speed decreases continuously as time advances from Ph2 to Ph3 in the daytime; the violation rate during Ph4 decreases as Ph4 duration is prolonged, which contradicts a general speculation that a higher rate of zigzag violations would appear as the duration of Ph4 is extended. These findings open the way towards determining the impacting factors which have an important contribution to the vehicle driver decision-making in this context (e.g., traffic density, time schedule and phase duration). In addition, the outputs of the present study are conducive to identifying potential interventions to improve safety at LXs

Analyzing risky behavior of motorists during the closure cycle of railway level crossings

Level Crossing (LX) safety is one of the most critical issues for railways. Collisions between trains and motorized vehicles contribute most to LX accidents, while the risky behavior of motorists is the primary cause of such accidents. Therefore, motorist behavior at LXs is a safety concern that requires special attention care. The present study is a tentative to acquire a better understanding of risky motorist behavior at LXs. Namely, risk analysis of motorist behavior is performed based on field observation conducted at 11 automatic LXs (10 equipped with two half barriers (SAL2) and 1 equipped with four half barriers (SAL4)). We particularly focus on motorist behavior during the LX closure cycle when the barriers are closed down completely. Based on recorded measurements, the zigzag violation rate is analyzed with regard to the prolonged LX closure duration and LX location (railway station nearby or not), respectively. Then, some other features characterizing risky behavior are determined, such as troop phenomenon. Besides, since our aim is to analyze motorist behavior at SAL2 LXs, one SAL4 LX was considered in our experiments to examine the distinction of motorist responses to SAL2 and SAL4 protection systems, so as to compare the efficiency of SAL2 and SAL4 LXs in terms of safety. In summary, the findings of our analysis offer a novel insight for interpreting significant aspects underlying motorist decision-making during the LX closure cycle and facilitate identifying technical solutions to improve LX safety